Monday, 29 June 2015

Correlation,Causation or Coincidence in Wales?

I will leave the choice of the 3C mentioned in the title as to which applies here,please see this if necessary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation


UK population = 64.6 Million http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/25/uk-population-at-record-high-with-net-migration-the-biggest-driver and http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_406922.pdf

Welsh Population = 3.1 Million http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/mid-year-estimates-population/?lang=en

ASH.org.uk  Estimates of sole users of e-cigarettes = 1.1 million UK users  http://www.ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_891.pdf

Pro-rata estimate for Wales = 52,786 sole users (who were all probably former smokers) The Welsh Government assumes 33,600 in its Explanatory Memorandum so a fair discrepancy is displayed here!

**note** dual users by my population data and ASH estimates  equates to  ~72,000 out of   124,768 total users **

Many assumptions used there ,but the Welsh Government uses ASH data in its own Explanatory Memorandum http://www.assembly.wales/laid%20documents/pri-ld10224-em/pri-ld10224-em-e.pdf

From 2007 until 2013 Cigarette Smoking Rates had decreased by 1% of the population ( total of 31,000 people)http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-smoking-survey-results-spark-3863819 confirmed by ONS stats throughout the period 2007-on http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/search/index.html?pageSize=50&sortBy=none&sortDirection=none&newquery=Wales+Smoking+Rates

from 2013 to present day a further 2% fall in Cigarette Smoking Rates( total of 62,000 people)

Whatever the various reasoning advanced  93,000  have quit since 2007,

52,786 Welsh sole e-cigarette users represents 57% of ALL 93,000 quitters since 2007, please decide for yourself which of the 3C mentioned above could be assigned here (if at all)

 Is this coincidence or should the Welsh Government re-appraise its intended legislation to ban the use of e-cigarettes in public places, can they be certain that the unintended consequence of a reversal of  smoking rates is implausible as advanced in their overview? This is especially relevant with regard to dual-users,who need encouragement and positive assistance to fully transition,any perceived negative messages towards dual-users in the proposals cannot be dismissed lightly .

This is but one aspect of many contentious issues contained in the proposals.

Responses need to be sent into the Welsh Government from Vendors and members of the Public  http://www.senedd.assembly.wales/mgConsultationDisplay.aspx?ID=181 closes 4th September 2015

Far more info is shown here produced by Simon Thurlow,and is a strongly recommended read  http://jester-midnightmusings.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/hscc-issues-call-for-evidence.html